Wednesday , September 28 2022

Reduce the rate of return of 40 paisa dollars, and inflation will complicate December


Dollar rebound at the beginning of the week After climbing 3.6%, yesterday closed at banks and exchanges at $ 40 a day. Banks in Nacion, which are generally the best prices, have gone up to $ 39.90. Although the currency has returned to the levels shown in early October, no one will be able to escape that this new rebound will affect other variables, however it will be necessary to see how far it is.

This raises in dollars It is almost impossible to reduce gasoline in December. This is an issue which has given a lot of encouragement to the government because it can also help in reducing inflation in December. Oil companies expressed doubts, but they did not refuse due to the sharp decline in oil prices.

But if they are hesitant in the first place, now they will reduce any reduction. It will also be necessary to evaluate exchange rate adjustment to increase inflation. It is true that most entrepreneurs have adjusted their calculations from $ 40 to $ 40, but certainly not in all cases. And on the other hand, There is no position to schedule where they will stay. It is to be said that even if yesterday's roof is a roof, it is also temporary.

Inflation rate in November will be 2.8%, but no one can guarantee that next month it will not come at 3%, which expects a negative psychological blow for something.

Exchange Rebounds puts you net on the interest rate. In recent weeks Lelik (short-term securities issued by BCRA), which went from 73.50% in the beginning of October, had exceeded 61% at the end of last week. . Now it will be difficult to scatter the floor, because the danger is that demand for the dollar will be even more accelerated. Between Friday and Yesterday, the literary rate was 61.23% on an average of 61.4%, that is, it continued slowly, though more slowly.

The way BCR is affecting the rate of money is absorbing more pesos or already in December, giving less than what is already in the contract with IMF. Both options will help maintain high rates and prevent dollars from skycutting. However, the result is that the re-activation of the economy can be delayed.

This jump took most economists and the financial world surprisingly. Although almost everyone talks about being careful, some have anticipated the frequency of intensity over the last few days. With yesterday's rally, the currency has already increased 9.6% from the floor in early November, when it is located in the area of ​​$ 36.40.

Why the exchange rate woke up? There are some reasons that give some clarity while giving clarity. But there were many speculations about it in the past few hours. Lebak's defense last week is definitely one of the affected ones, which means $ 120,000 million injection. The Treasury was successful in exploiting $ 35,000 million through placement of new bills in Pacos. It is reasonable to think that the rest of the remaining days went to buy dollars.

But apart from that, there are other aspects to play. Investors' confidence is reflected in the country's risk, which has increased the second step above 680 basis points yesterday. Dollar bonds fell again and Bona 2024, for example, lost more than 2% and yielded 11.3% annually on a dollar.

This climate of uncertainty reflects the bond's weakness, it also infects the exchange rate. In October, there was a contradictory situation. Reduction in exchange rate has reduced the country's risk.

Some have also included problems that Copa Libertadores occupy the greatest finals. Government began to blame for the loss of society and the city of Buenos Aires expressed concern in the investors. To make things worse, many private banking executives travel from Miami and New York to see the game. Obviously they did not come back with the best impression.

Source link