Wednesday , January 27 2021

The dollar will be close to the non-interference zone floor



The last wholesale was $ 37.37, just 16 cents below the lower limit. The exchange rate fluctuates between $ 48.19 and $ 37.21

The central bank is continuing with its prohibited practice of monetary policy.

On Friday, the value of The wholesale dollar closed at $ 37.37 and was down eight cents a day. That way Contact the exchange rate at the bottom of the Central Bank Intervention Intermediate Zone The Friday limit was $ 37.21. Monday will be $ 37.28 – it is updated every day so that it increases by 2% in the month.

Economists believe that this terrain dollar will continue in the non-interference zone. The price of the dollar has risen between $ 48.19 and $ 37.21 – according to supply and demand. Yes It goes beyond one of the borders, automatically, the bank interferes with it to settle it.

Since the launch of the plan, during the exchange rate the corridor has never crossed, but always went down. According to Clarin, it was eight cents from the floor at the beginning of November.

For analysts, the trend will continue in the coming days.

Barbara Guerzta, an economist at Ariasu Macroanalysts, says, "We look for a dollar near the floor than the roof."

Economists argue that "the amount of peso in the economy is practical [el dinero para que las familias y personas atiendan sus obligaciones], It seems difficult to think that it is the amount that manages to trigger a dollar-like dollar-dollar process in 2018When we look at the uncertainty of the elections this year. "The economist also adds two other reasons which reduce the demand for dollars: the contraction policies of the central bank and the treasury.

Gabriel Cama, adviser of Ledesma, agrees. "I see the dollar close to the floor, and if it dries, it will only be a transfer."

"We see it near the lower limit, but do not break it," said AJM George Nero.

Last week, the country's risk had dropped by 100 points, and in that respect the retail dollar had dropped 11 cents.

In December, the number of money increases in the economy for seasonal reasons (holidays, Christmas bonuses). So, The low demand for paces in January is expected compared to the previous month. According to Kamano, the BCRA will cross the financial goal by around $ 15,000 million this month. It will give the bank a cushion to reduce interest rates. Guergetta says that today the bill and deposit amount in the context of GDP are at a minimum level.

Central Bank has explained this week that the Wholesale Dollar – where the banks and companies work, how it will work – breaks the floor: It will buy 50 million US dollars by tender every day, with the condition that the peso extension does not exceed 2% of the financial base goals in the agreement with IMF. This way the rates will start falling down.

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