Tuesday , January 19 2021

Coal – and not renewal – is the root cause of increasing Australia's power prices



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The new analysis of the Bloomberg NEF has found that the rising cost of coal power generation in Australia is the primary electricity – even though the power tariff at the minor electricity market (NEM) has recently doubled.

The new analysis of BNEF is confirmed by the fact that thermal coal prices have doubled in two years and as a result, coal power capacity has doubled in NEM, so wind and solar are now less than short run. Thermal coal value from the spot market. The short-term price does not include money spent on making coal plants.

BNEF analyst Ali Asghar states, "This means that the export-related coal is inexpensive to create a new solar or wind plant burning in an existing, completely weak, coal plant."

"The current wave of solar and wind farms under construction reduces the pressure on power prices being operationalized in 2019-20 and also softens the international fuel prices on local power.

"There is a hedge of electricity and solar power against the increase in international coal or gas prices."

The graph above illustrates dramatic changes in the last two years, while new wind and solar plants cost more than current coal generators, but due to their reduced cost and the rising cost of coal, both are now at equal costs.

BNEF analysis is contradictory to what you hear from the fuel economy industry, government and conservative critics. But it follows its latest global analysis, showing that wind and solar prices are now producing coal around the world, and cheaper in Australia.

Recent findings by Snowy Hydro also confirm that the "recent" wind and solar is "cheaper than the current bassodod" found in its recent tender, which means coal is produced, and similar observations such as the original energy and the AGL, which say that the new Is cheaper Cleaner Technology, trying to maximize the life of the Lidel coal generator

Of course, if the coal is not setting the wholesale price of electricity in Australia, then it is possible to have gas, which is more expensive. However, there are some occasions, when Wind and Solar prices are drastically reduced, in Queensland, West Australia and South Australia in the last week we have seen that the market is also at the bottom or even negative prices.

As a new analysis by the carbon tracker in the BNEF report, it has also been found that half of all the coal coal producers of the world were losing, one third of them were more expensive than new wind and solar plants, and by 2030 the percentage would be 96%.

ITA saw that China could save US $ 389 billion by closing the plants with the Paris Climate Agreement instead of pursuing business as a general plan; European U.S. US $ US will save 78 billion; And Russia could save $ 20 billion.

Mete Gray, head of Power and Utilities in the Carbon Tracker, said the analysis provides "Blueprint for Investors, Investors and Civil Society"

"Lobbying and chronicism, this is the only thing that can save coal, and we're seeing it from Donald Trump and the other world," he said. Independent

The Carbon Tracker report contains this interesting table (above) that suggests that Australia can reach Inflation Point 3, where the new "firm" is cheaper than the latest coal, if Snowy Hydro is a tender guide.

The fact is that the federal government has not yet realized that it has reached Inflation Point 1, let alone the Inflation Point 2, where it will put the plan out of coal together.

Return to BNEF Studies. The following graph shows more detail how rising coal prices affect the bidding pattern of coal generators, and in wholesale prices.

The BNEF has noted that the cost of coal has doubled from the 2016 level, which is priced at the cost of the Seaborne thermal coal. Because the black call is currently 54% of the NEM's energy mix, which has increased by 51% in 2016 – the rise in the cost of coal production is the most important, although the factors of increasing the price of electricity are the most important.

New analysis of BNEF – & # 39;2H Australia Power Market Outlook& Quot; – It says that the rise in coal prices has increased the demand for Australian coal in Asia. Based on grade, Seaborne thermal coal prices were $ 55-75 per metric ton in the beginning of 2016, up from 90-160 per tonne in August 2018.

This is already accepted by Origin Energy (see our podcast interview with Greg Jarvis here), and by Regulatory Contributor David Lach in numerous events in his NEAM Watch series.

Agar says, "Coal Coal Generators are producing more power after closure of many brown coal plants in 2016 and 2017, which forces operators to produce more fuel in spot market prices."

"The result is that they charge more for their power. Thousands of coal capacity magnesiums have been made available for $ 40-60 per MWW for most MW-100 hours of electricity of 2016-20."


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