Sunday , January 24 2021

Crude oil rebounds are expected to fall continuously, the decline in production, oil prices 新浪 财经 _ 新浪 网



Growth gradually decreased by about two weeks by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)Crude oilThe main contract of domestic crude oil futures has climbed futures prices with a sharp reduction of almost 12% from almost one year of 1903. Market participants pointed out that the US stock market has been temporarily suspended and OPEC production data has been in control and the basic increase in prices has gradually improved. If the demand is higher in the post-demand period, then the depot effect will gradually appear and the oil price center is expected to be revived.

According to a report by Hyuksin, the reduction in crude oil futures prices has continued in the past two weeks due to the decline in production by petroleum exporting countries (OPEC), and the main contract of domestic crude oil futures has returned from the lowest position of about one year to 1903. 12% Market participants pointed out that the US stock market has been temporarily suspended and OPEC production data has been in control and the basic increase in prices has gradually improved. If the demand is higher in the post-demand period, then the depot effect will gradually appear and the oil price center is expected to be revived.

Oil prices have been stable and regenerated

After more than two months of continuous decline, crude oil prices have increased recently. In the external market, NYMX crude oil was valued at US $ 42.36, US $ 48.3 barrels, US $ 50.22 to US $ 57.42 / barrel, which is a growth of more than 13%. At the same time, in the context of internal market, the main energy crude oil futures contract in 1903 has increased from 351 yuan / barrel to 405 yuan / barrel, which is in cumulative growth of 13.44%.

"Crude oil futures have been consistently closed for many days, primarily investors ignored the decline of US stocks, but instead of reducing production commitment, they were converted into major oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia." Huawe Van Futures analyst Yang Guangxi commented.

Opaque's production has been the biggest fall in last two years. According to the figures obtained by Bloomberg, in December 2018, OPEC production fell by 530,000 barrels to 32.6 million barrels per day, the highest since January 2017. Of these, Saudi production fell to 420,000 barrels per day. Market participants believe that OPEC's active production cuts have been done before production reduction, which means that crude oil exporters are keen on stabilizing market supply and demand.

Expect short-term returns to continue

Market participants noted that with the reduction in OPEC production data, fundamentals improve gradually and with perspective of large-scale assets, US stocks have shown signs of stability in the near future and hunger of market risk is being restructured, which will help in reducing crude oil in the short term. . Situation

"On the face of the disc, the US stocks have declined last week, oil prices are still strong and the relationship between assets has decreased. Despite the logic of leading oil prices in the near future, OPEC can quickly reduce production, hence the demand for the season has increased in demand Hutai Futures researcher Pan Ziang said.

Huxini Pan Panang said that Saudi Arabia is determined to reduce production, from data and shipping schedule data for December 2018. According to Bloomberg and Reuters statistics, the cut in Saudi Arabia's December production has reached 400,000-500,000 barrels a day, and in January 2019 production is expected to reduce 10.2 million barrels per day. In addition, there is definite support for the market in recent hindrance in oil production and exports in Libya. However, Russia's production in December 2018 was higher at 11.45 million barrels a day.

"In January, Opaque and Canada had reduced the production and subsequent demand grew. Depot's effect was gradually revealed, and it may be expected to focus on oil prices." Hu Jiyapang, the researcher of CITIC futures, believes that the oil price stabilization node should look at three key indicators: US stocks are stable and reduce production. The library was crushed and the disk structure was settled. Currently, US stocks have settled temporarily, OPEC production has gradually declined, net returns in crude oil funds in net-long positions, and monthly differences in spot structures have been settled temporarily. If the macro environment stabilizes, oil prices may increase.

Industrial Futures researcher Huang Unuji said that despite strong increase in the situation of strong supply side, on the basis of demand, the slowdown in economic development has not improved and fundamentals have not improved significantly. Huang Ununzi believes that the current price has drastically reduced oil prices, if the production reduction agreement is confirmed, the supply and demand situation will gradually adjust and the reduction will decrease. In January 2019, oil prices will fluctuate, if it is wrong, then it will continue to fluctuate. At the same time, there has been a sharp increase in the recent connection between oil prices and US stocks, and it is recommended to pay attention to the trend of US stocks during that day.


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