Friday , January 22 2021

The White House is still detained. Focus on the new news of China-US trade. Will this increase in gold this week? – Forex Channel – Financial Circle



1From Comment 2019-01-07 09:28:21 Source:FX 168 Financial News Agency Small capital doubles quickly

On Monday (January 7th), Asian Market was in the opening trading day. The international spot gold was at US $ 1,283.00 per ounce. Current gold price is currently trading in a narrow range in the session.

Spot the suit in the 60 minute chart

In the first week of the new year, gold bulls can be described as "high spirited", which is constantly increasing for six consecutive working days with the Yangsean line. It once arrived near the 1300 mark on Friday, which was $ 1,828.30 per ounce from mid-June 2018, but since then the point has returned. On Friday (January 4th), it was once pressed by strong non-agricultural data and lost the mark of 1290 and 1280 US dollars / ounce, the lowest hit was 1276.52 US Dollar / oz, while the New York session was again due to Powell's guarded speech And enthusiastic repetition. Although Zhou's hardware has returned in the last few days of the past few days, he still receives the benefits of a third week.

US According to the latest figures released on Friday by the Department of Labor (DOL), the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 312,000 in December, after March 2018 new high recordings and the market expected to increase by 184,000.

At the same time, the unemployment rate in the US was 3.9%, which is expected to be 3.7% compared to 3.7% in the previous month. December in the US Labor force participation rate was 63.1% compared to 62.9% in the previous month.

High-profile wage data also emphasizes: The average monthly wage rate in the United States increased by 0.4% in December, which is expected to increase 0.2% to 0.3% in the previous month. The average annual salary rate in the US rose by 3.2% in December, expected growth. 3.0%, 3.1% last month. December in the US Labor force participation rate was 63.1% compared to 62.9% in the previous month.

December in the US After the non-farm payroll report was released, the Federal Fund Rate Futures suggested that the Fed has reduced the possibility of reducing rates in 2019. CME Federal Funds Rate Futures shows that the Fed's reduction rate is 36% this year, which is less than 43% before the non-agricultural report.

Later, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and his predecessors attended Bernanke and Yale's meeting on the "Fed: joint visit" group meeting during the annual meeting of the American Economic Association / Social Science Association.

Fellow Chairman Powell recently said that the US economy was better in 2018 and the information directors gave a better direction in 2019. Employment data is strong, salary data is satisfactory and there is no fear of inflation going up. Consumer spending and other data are still expected to be strong, and US data will maintain good momentum during the new year. The report of the American Institute of Supply Management (ISM) record is high, but the decrease in ISM is lesser. However, he noted that the financial markets have left negative risk.

In response to monetary policy, Powell said that Fed will maintain patience and implement flexible policies, and the Fed will always be ready to adjust its policy stance.

In response to contraction, Powell said that the Fed would not hesitate to change its balance sheet policy. Do not assume that the adjustment of balance sheets is the main reason for the recent market instability, if necessary, the Fed will change the policy of reducing the contract.

In response to Trump's accusation, Powell said that if the US President Trump wants to resign, so I will not do it. He also said that the US. There is no plan to meet with President Trump.

After the non-agricultural data was released, the US The dollar index rose nearly 40 points in the short-term and at a daily high of 96.63. But during Powell's speech, the index of $ 96.20 decreased by more than 40 points in the short term.

Spot Gold, affected by the strength of the US dollar, reached $ 1290 / oz mark lower than $ 14, and the fresh low was $ 1,276.52 per ounce, which was slightly higher when Powell spoke. Spot Paleidi hit the record high and hit the $ 1300 / oz mark for the first time.

In addition, the European and American stock markets increased in the board: the three major US stock indices increased, the Dow rose more than 600 points to 2.7%; Nasdaq rose 3.2%; S & P 500 increased 2.7%. The European Shakes Board increased, European Stocks index of 600%, Germany's DxS index, Spain's IBX 35 Index, Italy's FTSE MIB index rose more than 2.5%, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 1.78%, France's CAC40 index rose. 1.98%.

There has not been significant progress in the White House's lockout negotiations. The Democratic Party will take steps to resume some organizations.

According to foreign media reports on Saturday (January 5th), US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that negotiations between the Trump administration and the Democratic negotiators on Saturday have failed to finish the two-week official shutdown, and Democrats will try to pass the new ones. The law to restart some governments

President Trumpk wants $ 5.6 billion still to build the wall on the US-Mexico border, but Democrats controlled the House of Representatives this week, which passes the bill, which will allow the government to restart the extra funding for the border wall. Then Trump said that he will not sign the bill until he receives funds for the border wall.

After Saturday's meeting, Pelosi said that starting with the Treasury and Tax Bureau, the House Democrats will reopen the government agencies by the next week's appropriation bill. It is reported that both the government and the Democratic Party agreed to meet again on Sunday.

The Democratic Assistant to the Meetings said that the Democrats' staff have urged the government to reopen the government because they believe it will be difficult to make progress when the government's closure of the controversial border security issues. Due to the insistence of both parties, the federal government closed for a quarter or two week, resulting in the temporary departure of 800,000 government employees.

Pelosi officially acted as chairmanship of the House of Representatives this week, suggesting that the Democratic Party officially handled the House of Representatives after winning the mid-term elections in November. He noted that the proposed boundary wall of Trump is "unethical" and "waste money".

After this, Trump insisted on the border wall in the series of tweets on Saturday. He threatened to take immediate action to force the boundary wall scheme on Friday, but it has been approved by Congress, so it is almost certain that there will be legal challenges.

Focus on China-US trade news, the market is keen to make good progress

On Friday, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on its official website that China and the United States consulted at the sub-ministerial level on 7th January to 8th January on economic and trade issues.

On December 1, the US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to stop collecting a new tariff within 90 days while trying to reach a permanent agreement.

ING's Commodity Strategist Warren Paterson said that trade negotiations will be held on Monday and Tuesday. Optimism comes from a potentially optimistic conclusion. But in Tuesday's trade negotiations we can reach the final conclusion. Therefore, the effect of trade war will continue for a short time. "

Butler believes that if there is no solution in the next few months, the economic impact can be very big, which will support gold.

Butler claims that "nearly 50% of China's exports are subject to tariff. If it expands, what does it mean for the Chinese economy? If China faces real economic difficulties, it may be spread in other emerging markets and global Spread to other areas of the economy. "

Gold Outlook

Weekly Gold Survey of KitKat released on Friday showed that despite the US strong employment reports, Wall Street and retail defenders are expected to increase gold prices this week mostly. In the survey of the Wall Street Professionals, 20 people took part in the survey, 11 or 55% said that this weekend gold will increase, 6 or 30% believe that this week gold will fall, 3 or 15% think. Participants of the integration market include gold traders, investment banks, futures traders and technical analysts. In the survey of general investors, 706 people took part in the survey, 544 people, or 77% said that this week's rise in gold, the most significant percentage of bullish records from 84% on April 12; About 14% of people believe that gold will fall this week, 61 people or 9% believe that gold will be strong.

Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said that the initial support for gold prices is $ 1,280 per ounce. The current gold price is still above the water level and it will be backed by a strong support of $ 1,250 over the 200-day moving average.

Butler said that on the contrary, $ 1,300 is an important "psychological barrier" and the top resistance is $ 1,316 per ounce, because this is the first Fibonacci retracement of the highest level in the past year. "

However, Mellex expects gold prices to not fall below $ 1,270 per ounce in the near future.

Christopher Lewis, an analyst at Foxmeter, said: "We believe that Gold Colebbeck is a good opportunity to be eager to make more opportunities this week, especially if gold is hard-working, gold will be raised. Safe Heaven Value

MKS "I think that with the current geographical political position in the US and the huge fluctuations in the stock market, I expect precious metal prices to rise," said Ashish Nabivi, head (trade) of SA (Switzerland) SA.

Adrian Dey, chairman and CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, called for an increase in gold prices. He says: "Gold is behind some velocity, stock market volatility and government shutdown, as well as Democrat-controlled House of Representatives and threat of threat from President Trump, which support gold."

Eureka Mining Report Editor Richard Becker believes that gold will again be worth $ 1,290.

At 08:25 Beijing time, Spot Son reported $ 1282.98 USD / ounce.


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