According to a study by the Center for Development for NRU HSE, in the next three years, the GDP growth rate will not exceed 1.6-1.9%, which is at RBC's disposal. According to the report's authors, major risks will decrease in 2019.
In 2019, GDP growth would slow 1.3% (from 1.8% in 2018). This will reduce oil prices, reduce exports growth, adapt to restrictions, change in permanent fiscal regulation and increase VAT rates, the report said.
Economists have increased a bit by 2020 – up to 1.6% and by 2021 – up to 1.9% in 2021. According to study writers, this is less than predicting the baseline of economic development. The ministry believes that in 2020 the economy will grow 2%, and from 2021 to 3%.
Without increasing the price of oil, a more favorable view is impossible, study says. According to the HSE forecast, Euros oil will fall by $ 71 per barrel in 2018 to 63 dollars per barrel by 2021.
In September, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, Maxim Oersky said that the Russian economy has shown the lowest growth rate in the first quarter of 2019. This will mainly be associated with an increase in VAT. According to him, the growth rate will accelerate in the second and third quarters.