Influenza causes 250,000 to 500,000 people every year, and each year a little different flu occurs. Based on the ability of the virus to change and it is always present in nature, experts agree that it is only time that a strain will appear as lethal as the Spanish influenza.
Michael Ostrom, director of research at the University of Minnesota Research Center, said that "the flu epidemic is like earthquakes, hurricanes and tsunami, it happens, and some are worse than others." He added that it will be difficult to predict when it will start or how the epidemic will appear.
However, the World Scientific Organization (WHO) regularly monitors the virus and its development, but it is difficult to control and monitor any animal that can be a viral-born virus, according to the Children's Hospital of Memphis in the US. Robert Webster states.
US According to Professor Gerard Chowell, State University's Epidemiology Professor, this virus can, of course, get out of control and then spread quickly around the world. "Influenza is one of those viruses, when it comes to sensitive populations, it extends very quickly," he added.
Especially due to the large number of inhabitants of the world, there will be a large number of sick and dying for more than a hundred years. If at that time 50 million people had died of flu, they could now be more than 200 million, he explained.
The number of casualties can not be distributed equally around the world. It would be worse in ethnic groups that are more dangerous for viruses, poor people who do not have basic health access. They also pointed out countries with expensive healthcare services like the United States.
According to the Danish University Roskilde Lon Simmons epidemic researcher, vaccination is the best way to stop the epidemic.
Osterhom warned that the first identification of the virus should be done, the vaccine should be generated and distributed worldwide, which takes some time. It would be virtually impossible to produce enough vaccine for everyone. "In the first six to nine months, only one to two percent of the world's population will get vaccinated in the world," he added.
In this regard, he must be aware that 60% of the vaccine is successful today. There is also a similar problem with medicines because they do not actually store anti-flu drugs in the event of epidemic.
If the epidemic arises, Osterhom has estimated that this will also mean collapse of society, as schools and businesses will stop, public traffic will not work, when electricity is stored, electricity will be expected to be carried out. There may be problems with food access soon. More than epidemic, flu will have serious side effects, he added.
Scientists did not rebuild the Spanish influenza development in 2005, when they were able to sample the virus. The main feature is that the virus spread rapidly, which stimulates the body's natural immunity response to cytokine. When it is activated in large quantities of white blood cells, it is a bad form of cytokine release syndrome, which releases inflammation Sotokines, and enables more white blood cells. Due to excessive activity in the body, there is a systemic defect in the body. Because adults have better immune system than children or older, researchers believe that, because of this, Spanish influenza was therefore deadly.
Scientists have developed various immunotherapy in the decades following Spanish influenza, which helps limit the storm of cytokine, but these remedies are not available everywhere. So today, in reality, 100 years ago, they did not do better to fight the storm of Sitokin, Osterhom warned.
The pandemic can also be prevented by universal influenza vaccine. There are already many studies on this topic, which some scientists have anticipated to achieve success in this field. "But we are not there yet," Webster concluded.