Monday , August 2 2021

How traders predict how traders will predict

The Christmas business is already running at full speed on Amazon. For the first time in this season, The Evurbation Store, the All-Dealer, as Amazon's founder Jeff Bezos, was called an online giant in his biography, but will sell fir trees – in the Douglas and Fir box. It is possible that one or the other Amazon product, such as the smart speaker Amazon Eco, will also be seen under the Christmas tree. In "Prime Day", which is known as Amazon's global shopping event, online retailer sold 600 goods per second. Analysts predicted that this year the number of Christmas businesses could also increase.

In order to process orders and deliver parcels in a timely manner, Amazon requires a pragmatic logistics system. But complexity and speed alone are not enough in the complex supply chain. It's about identifying market developments at an early stage.

«Speculation parcel delivery»

In 2014, Amazon filed a patent for the pre-order system, which was a little bigger "leading shipping", which means shipping ahead looking. The idea: to transfer goods to those areas where they have not yet been ordered. The patent application refers to "speculative parcel shipments". Amazon wants to use a large number of algorithms to calculate the likelihood that a customer will order a product – and therefore reduce the cost of return.

For example, when Amazon notes an increase in product search for toys during the Advent season of Pennsylvania, there is a high likelihood that they will be bought – and moving the goods to their distribution centers is essential. According to all the market researchers, 49% of all product searches are being started on Amazon. After supporting a language alexa, a digital drone will introduce Amazon to loyal customers by digital drones after a request, from a future perspective, not really far from the realities.

"Inferential shopping" is considered the next big thing in the business. Data gurus have the passion to predict people and forecast weather-like social development. It seems dystopian, but it works surprisingly well.

In early 2004, the US Department store chain Wal-Mart started collecting data from its 100 million customers: Geographically broken choices for products ranging from social security numbers to licensed plates to chocolate biscuits or lipsticks. According to the New York Times report, Walmart made 460 terabytes of consumer database at that time. Data scientists found in their models that strawberry pop tart, type of biscuit cake, is more than seven times the normal amount of hurricanes before selling.

In August 2004, when Hurricane Francis US On the east coast, Walmart campers filled the biscuit truck and sent them to Florida. Knowledge means not only power, but also profit. Despite Amazon's competition, Wal-Mart managed to keep its own control in the market.

Economists Lynn Woo and Eric Bryanzolls have shown in a study how to predict real estate prices and Google sales of home sales. Search Engine is an economic barometer and a seismograph for social moods. Every day, Google records 3.5 billion applications. All of Google's users: hotels, cars, neighbors, sexual preferences, crime scenes. Central banks have been using Google data for some time to predict customer behavior.

On Google Trends, a publicly available statistical tool, it is possible to look for all areas of the world that what is the most popular word for X. According to Think With Google service, customers who are searching for "where to buy" to reach the top of the consumer trends, December 23, 2016, help the party flip back. This search interest obviously reflects the final panic of many Google users, which is looking for the right gift just before Christmas. You can read the trend very precisely, which customers are looking for.

Analytics companies now have insights into companies that do not have them. For example, the online network Foursquare, which shares its location through an application, could have predicted a decline in the Fast Food Chain Chipple due to check-in. Forecast – minus 29.7% – was relatively accurate. However, companies declared by public companies remain their secret (business).

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