Due to the declining gold prices in 2011, gold has remained silent for many years and once it was forgotten by the market. With the recent global financial instability, the gold trend has once again been focused.
Gold price is also a spirited display in the near future, with the mess in the international financial market. Everyone is most concerned about how to see gold prices.
Yang Tianli, deputy director of the Taiwan Silver Precious Metals Department, who has given the title of "Golden Prince", said that this year from August to February last year, it is considered as a new bullish attitude. After the five waves, the ABC Wave Reform started and now he started another wave. "It's just that the reform is not deep enough and the rate of growth is very fast, this year ($ 1400 ~ 1425) is the end of the targeted areas."
In the short-term context, even though the price of gold in June rapidly reflects the market, Yang Tianjie believes that the set target price will not increase significantly this year because the market is impossible, is mostly expected and there is no explosive phenomenon. It's a bit like a reaction to the Fed's speech and to the dove market.
Since 2013, gold prices have been trying to break through the pressure line. After many attempts to break, he failed to return. At this time, it eventually broke. However, it is necessary to go back to the technical line. Yang Tianjli pointed out that even if it is at the bottom, it can be improved. In July, it seems that the price of gold is $ 1,360 on a large neckline.
Considering the conclusion of G-20, first of all, if there is no surprise, then there will not be much power for gold price, then after gold is over, gold will be backed up. $ 1,360 is the first support belt, and $ 1,340 is another support belt if there is no more news to worry about the market.
See also in July that the Fed will reduce interest rates or not? And the direction of the conversation? Of course, now the Fed's position has turned towards pigeon, the gold has cooled down; The interest rate cut is expected in July, the cost of gold can be $ 1,400, because the original market has become real. However, in the current market, the reduction in interest rate cuts is very low, and the possibility of returning the improvements is high. $ 1,310 will be strong support even if gold prices are being investigated further. Yang Tianjie explicitly said that the likelihood of gold prices likely to be lower than at the bottom, breaking $ 1,300.
If we look at the trend of gold from 2011, we will have a big headcount in 2011 and 2012. We started cutting sharply in 2013 and started reclaiming in 2016. Both attempts to break down have failed, and have been taller and higher at the bottom since 2015. Push line makes the position of growing triangle. Since 2011 it is a growing triangle or after the type of the big bowl since 2013, once the pressure is broken, the calculated target value is $ 1,600.
However, Yang Tianjli has reminded that this target value can not be seen till now and next year, and it will be seen only in the following year. Ultimately, the risk can increase, but it will not go out, and the stock market and the bond market are still attractive. If there is no more money in gold, then the price of gold is not very sharp.
In the second half of the year, the US Dollar, US Monetary policy and the only thing to follow in the US. Yang Tianjie explained that it seems that the US Dollar does not put much pressure on gold prices. As long as the dollar does not grow, it is a support for gold prices. US In the monetary policy, interest rates are the most important indices. If the currency breaks, then it will continue to market the stock market and bond market. The effect on gold can be less than half. The intensity and intensity of the cut in the rate of interest will be key. For the stock market, when the point of view is seen?
(China Times Newsletter)