Friday , January 22 2021

Venezuela needs political and diplomatic, not military intervention

Venezuela's economy, society, politics and institutions are in free fall. The current ruling of President Nicholas Maduro ends on January 10, and the inauguration is considered as illegal work by most of Venezuela's people and by most governments of North America, South America, and Europe.

Press to help remove the situation from Washington (United States) and other places, but there are no easy solutions. The country is polarized, in which 20% of the population supports the government, and it is trained by its military and secret services by the Kuwans and possibly other security advisers. Most citizens oppose the government, but with split and inefficient political leadership.

International efforts are required, but Foreign military intervention, especially if it includes the United States, will divide Venezuela In "patriots" and "terrorists", Depending on how each field sees it. It is not possible to happen because it will require a larger country's occupation, which will have a large army and armed army; There is no challenge that no army can handle Latin America, no European military force will accept, and the US The armed forces will not even oppose it. If there is a foreign military intervention in Iraq, it will be more in the long term And it will negatively affect the reputation of the countries that interfere. Also Current migration will speed up the crisis seriously.

In addition, talking about military interventions in Venezuela reverses essential political efforts, reinforcing the idea that comes from abroad.

We can not rely on the international stimulus of the internal military rebellion to return to democracy; Rather, it can make the persecution of authoritarian violence and new military leaders intensify.

It is difficult to imagine that Venezuela successfully crossed "dictatorship" without integrating democratic opposition. So far, many opposition leaders have chosen to compete for personal influence, rather than a sustainable political agreement; Other They seem more motivated to seek revenge rather than finding solutions. Chavez manipulation experts have benefited from this trend, which manages the opposition parties to fight with themselves.

To move forward, the democratic opposition groups need to organize and work together. They should adopt a proposal to keep primary positions for their leadership, they must also make democratic structure for decision-making, implementation and discipline.

Democratically elected leaders should have the right to bring and maintain pressure against repressive rule and should be legally entitled to get rid of and support the moment's commitment.

The time when a simple "dialogue" is passed, both parties know the situation of others. And the conditions for negotiation are not given, because the poor government also feels comfortable when the opposition is divided. A joint protest in space for a joint negotiation must be opened by internal built-in activities, In conjunction with international pressure.

Opponents of the United States of Venezuela should work toward negotiations with government representatives.

In the final negotiation, they should be open to compromise and be willing to make international arrangements to share power with military officials and government officials. Negotiations should include trade, labor, professional and religious leaders who recognize the need for peaceful change. Some Venezuelan military officials can play a good role to persuade the government to make some significant initial grants.

Specific experimental proposals to address the future clear and concise vision and address major problems can help opponents commit to reaching political agreements with the popular support of people who support Hugo Chavez and Madaru.

An agreement will be required to include free and fair municipal, state and national elections, with independent voter authorities and credible international observation.

International actors should follow the example of Venezuela's elected leaders, most of whom are opposed to the withdrawal of their ambassadors from Caracas in most countries.

South America, North America, the Caribbean, Europe and other countries, and Vatican must closely monitor political representation and events in Venezuela.

They should also specify:

1 They are ready to join and strengthen honest negotiations.

2 They will support potentially temporary adjustments to power distribution.

3 They can organize international settlements of some key individuals.

4 They are committed to provide significant assistance for them Humanitarian assistance and for economic and social recovery of Venezuela.

This For the historical and current reasons, the United States Government is not good enough to accept the role of leadership in the creation of solutions in Venezuela, But in order to increase confidence in the negotiation, the support of the European Union's good offices, Lima Group and others should support the efforts of international contacts and provide resources and technologies on request.

There is not a quick solution. Democratic transitions in other countries from dictatorship has shown that there is a combination of simultaneous and consistent international pressures For more strategic vision and commitment, openness contributes more to external results than achieving results..

Venezuela is a difficult case, but in reality it is not more cruel than the Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet; Its polarization is not stronger than that South African tint; And international leaders of Chawistas are not more powerful than that Communist Poland.

It seemed unlikely until the previous transitions took place, and possibly in Venezuela it would be the case.

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