TAIPEI – Apple's first cut in its sales forecast since 2002 is expected to have a major impact on its global suppliers.
Foxconn, Lumumnum, Cyrus Logic and Skyworks – the most painful companies – account for 45% of their revenues on Apple.
When Apple CEO Tim Cook made blame for unexpected economic downturn in China for poor performance, the impact could spread to electronics companies in the US, South Korea and Taiwan. A basic problem referring to Cook was Apple's failure to come up with a new hit product in nearly a decade. According to analysts interviewed by EE Times, Apple seems to lose steam.
Andrew Lue, head of technology based China's Sinolink Securities, said, "The lack of innovation is a big problem for Apple." "The US-China trade war began to support the Chinese people's local phones."
FabCitech's chief analyst Mike Fabius said that the iPhone has failed to increase global revenue with its high value for iPhone.
"It has been particularly unsuccessful in China, where domestic suppliers produce such high-quality products on such attractive products," Fibus said.
There can be better news for China's hawk due to slowdown, which has made Apple the new number two in smartphones, according to analysts.
Huawei has increased competition with its flagship SOC, 7 NM Kirin 980.
At this time, the only companies to announce 7 NM processors for smartphones are Apple and Huawei. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) makes chips for both companies.
On 17th January, when TSS announced its results for the fourth quarter of 2018 and provided its trend for the first quarter of this year, sales revenue is expected to fall by 20%, according to Luna, half of the Apple fall decreased Is there.
Lack of diversity
Apple, the world's largest electronics company, can have a variety of problems.
Approximately 60% of Apple's revenue comes from iPhone. What's worse, more than 75% of Apple's revenue is based on mature product lines – iPhone, iPad and Macintosh, Fibase have noted.
Top-to-smartphone suppliers, Samsung and Huawei, have a wide range of products supporting their operations.
Fabis said, "Both of the other businesses are dynamic enough to deal with difficulties in the way of smartphones." : "Not Apple."
Huawei is a major target in the US-China trade war.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the US The government has approached Germany, Japan, Italy and other friendly countries, apparently raising concerns about the risks of cyber security if they use the components made by Huawei to make their 5G Infrastructures. The US against the Chinese company in Broads. There may be indefinite results that can hurt the tech industry.
Lu said, "(Donald) does not take care of trump tech sector." "The government is killing its own tech industry."
Smartphones are no longer the main drivers of electronics sales. This year, the forecast for the handset can be premature.
Last month, market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) said last year smartphones shipments dropped 3 percent this year, so this year the single-digit growth will decline.
IDG said that emerging markets, 5G and new product form factors will help revive the smartphone market.
According to Breit Simpson, senior analyst of Arte Research in London, 5G, China will not be able to give tailwind to Apple in the smartphone market.
He told us, "If you look at the China smartphone market, I think Apple's position will weaken in the next 12-18 months as it is possible to have a 5g iPhone by 2G." He noted, "As the Chinese government expects a 5G subsidy (in late 2019 or early 2020), introduce market sentiment shifts against Apple."
Fabius said, "The farthest problem concerns concern upgrades." "The refresh cycle, which relies on smartphone suppliers, has broken. Now there is a satisfactory potential for consumers who they already have."
Last month, a court in China ordered Qualcomm against Apple. Does it affect Apple's iPhone sales in China?
Simpson said, "We have not seen the full impact of the recent iPhone command in China and there are many other claims laws in China that can combine things." He added, "We think a close settlement between the two is a possible result."
Not enough recovery is expected until Sinolink Securities analyst Lu 5G and AIA began entering the production mix in 2020. In the second half of this year, an inventory rebill will start seasonal recovery.
Meanwhile, Simpson gave us muted forecasts for the chip industry. "Overall, while focusing on the semiconductor industry, I do not think we are in long-term recession for technology, there are many important drivers ahead of the long term like AI, 5G and IOT …. but we will be cutting significant estimates in 2019. "He said," We are coming in a strong year for IT spending in 2018, the semiconductor industry has grown more across the board, macro weakening Observed, and the US / China has been the market uncertainty surrounding potential supply chains import duties. "